Scenario Analysis and Shock Implementation in MARIO

Implementing a shock without using mario excel platform

A scenario can be implemented in multiple ways within mario. Simple shocks may be implemented with mario as follow:

lets increase the local final demand of Italy by 10%

Implementing a shock using mario excel platform

mario also supports introduction of very complex shocks through an excel platform, which can be generated with mario automatically based on the shape of the database. Then scenarios can be translated with the options of the excel files.

The excel platform alos gives the opprotunity to define cluseters of sets like Region, Secotr,.... to implement more complex shocks

An excel file will be created in the given path. The excel file has 6 different pages as follow:

  1. indeces: this page contains all the valid data that can be used for the definition of the shocks. These values are used to validate the data on other sheets
  2. main: This sheet is an optional sheet that user may use for the intermediate calculations and defining the assumptions of the problem
  3. Y: This sheet is specified for implementing a shock on the Final demand
  4. v: This sheet is specified for implementing a shock on tha value added
  5. e: This sheet is specified for implementing a shock on the satellite account
  6. z: This sheet is specified for implementing a shock on the intersectoral transaction matrix

In this version of mario, there are different ways to implement a shock (more options will be added to the next versions):

  1. update: this method updates a value on the coefficient matrix
  2. Absolute: this method implements the change in terms of absolute values (flows) and implement the change on coefficient matrix
  3. Percentage: this method implements a percentage change directly on coefficient matrix (the values should be between 0 to 1 meaning that 10% increase is 0.1 and 10% decrease is -0.1)

For example, a scenario with 10% increase in the self consumption of services sector in Italy can be modeled in the excel file as follow:

Finally, the excel file can be passed to shock function to implement the shock

Defining the Clusters

In order to impelemnt shocks on a bunch of items, you can use clusters. Lets implement a change in the local final demand of all sectors in italy for 10%, first without the clusters.

In this way, user needs to replicate the same change for all the sectros in italy as shown in the picture

An easier way to this shock is to use clusters. In this case user needs to define a cluster on the 'Sector'. But clusters can be defined on all the sets of the table (for checking all the sets of table you can use test.sets)

A cluster on sectors can be defined as follow:

So in this case, we are making a cluster on Sector. The cluster will be called All and it contains all the Sectors in the database. Now if we request mario to generate the shock excel, 'All' is added as a valid option for the Sector.

The same shock now can be implemented as the shown in the pic:

In order to implement a shock, we need to use the excel files and the definition of clusters as follow: